The Rocket Returns, But Will It Help?

Well, after six months of posturing, Roger Clemens has finally done what everybody knew he would do:


He's signed a one-year, $22 million contract with the Houston Astros. The contract is pro-rated so in reality he will probably only make $12 million. (Ha! I said, "only make.") Clemens won't be with the team until mid to late June.

I don't think Clemens was ever seriously courting offers from the Yankees, Red Sox or even the Rangers. All he was trying to do was get the Astros to offer him more money. He's made it pretty clear over the last two years that he wanted to be near his home and family; New York and Boston are close to neither and the Rangers play in the American League, which was something that Clemens wanted to avoid - he wouldn't be able to post a sub 2.00 ERA in the AL like he could do in the NL. Besides, Roger wants a chance to get to the World Series, and it is a lot easier road in the National League right now than in the American League.

So what took so long?

Clemens was eligible to be signed on May 1st and he had all offseason to negotiate with teams. Why, after five months, did he need a sixth?

My favorite rumor, along the lines of the chatter surrounding Michael Jordan's first "retirement" (that it was really a suspension for gambling), was that Clemens had been given a 50 game suspension for steroid abuse. I have at times suspected this and when you see that the Astros have played 53 games this season, it's almost believable.

But I don't think it's true. Roger Clemens is 43 years old. He was lights out during the regular season for the Astros in 2005, but faded in September - and his season abruptly ended two innings into Game One of the World Series.

So it's more likely Roger waited this long because he wants to be fresh for a postseason run in Houston.

The question is, can he get there?

The third place Astros entered the day at 27-26, 6.5 games behind division-leading St. Louis. It's a marked improvement over last year's NL pennant-winning season when in the first two months they were 15-30.

And adding Clemens to a rotation that already includes Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettite puts the team back on the boards as an instant contender.

But it's clear with a team ERA of 4.64 and opponents batting .275 (they're ranked 13th in the 16 team National League in both categories), they need him. The Astros offense is also struggling with only a .256 batting average, though they do average 4.6 runs per game.

Clemens will help in both areas. First, he'll be replacing either Taylor Bucholz or Fernando Nieve in the rotation while the team waits for Brandon Backe(sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow) to get off of the 15 day DL. And he'll also relieve pressure on the offense by not forcing them to outscore opponents as much.

Bottom line, it's going to be a long road to the postseason. Realistically I don't see the Cardinals fading much thanks to their pitching (the Cardinals sport a NL best 3.80 ERA) and some guy named Pujols on pace for over 200 RBIs.

So a wild card berth seems to be the more likely route for Houston but a lot of teams stand in their way - most notably the Phillies, Braves, Reds, and the entire National League West (the Astros would be in 5th place in the West right now).

Which means the Astros are going to have to get really hot during the summer months.

And that could be tough.

Unlike previous seasons, Houston no longer seems to have a lights out bullpen. Brad Lidge is carrying a 5.26 ERA and has been hit around pretty well at times, despite his 14 saves. He has a WHIP (Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched) of 1.64, a high number for a closer. In the starting rotation Roy Oswalt has been solid (5-3 3.11ERA) but Andy Pettite is struggling(4-6 5.65ERA). Even if Clemens performs, both of them will have to pick it up over the summer for the Astros to have a realistic shot at it. Also, someone besides Lance Berkman(.292 14HR 44RBI) and Morgan Ensberg(.267 17HR 36RBI) will have to help pick up the offensive slack. Jason Lane has 9HR, but is only batting .195, and Preston Wilson(.265 5HR 26RBI) hasn't contributed much either.

All this means that, while Roger Clemens will help the Astros, he's not going to be able to do it on his own. He is not a savior, and the Astros have to avoid falling into the trap of thinking that he is.

So can the Astros get back to the postseason this year?

Yes.

Will they?

At this point I have to say no but it's written in pencil.