Tommy the Dago Presents: NFL Week Four

Okay, so last week I got my ass handed to me by the spread. There's this crazy trend going around the NFL right now that has seemed to make being on the road an advantage. Something tells me that won't last all season.

Jets vs. COLTS (-9)
You don't normally give up nine points with a team on the road but when that team is the Colts and it's the regular season, it's not that big a deal. An interesting angle to this game, though: Jets coach Eric Mangini used to coach the secondary for those New England Patriots teams that still give Peyton Manning nightmares. The only difference is that those New England secondaries also had the New England front seven making their job a lot easier. The Jets don't.

Ravens(+3) vs. Chargers
Last week's narrow escape from the Cleveland Browns may prove the Ravens aren't as good as we were ready to believe after the first two games of the season. That said, it was a game the Ravens wouldn't have won last season with Kyle Boller playing QB, so Steve McNair does make a difference. This Sunday, they get their first true test in Ladainian Tomlinson but the Ravens' defense will make it tough on Chargers QB Philip Rivers in his third career start, and at the very least keep it close.

Bills vs. Vikings (+1)
The Vikings could have very easily been 4-0 and on top of the NFC North right now but they let one slip away from them at home last week, while the Bills lost to the Jets. The Vikings are just the better all-around team, and I think they'll come away with a win here.

Titans (+9) vs. Cowboys
Remember what I just wrote about how it's okay to give up nine points on the road with Peyton Manning in the regular season? Well, it's not okay when it's Drew Bledsoe. EVER. Especially when his top two targets both have hand injuries (Terry Glenn - cut his thumb pretty bad - Terrell Owens -broken bone) and one of them may have tried to off himself earlier this week. I don't even care that Kerry Collins has six interceptions this season or that the Titans may be without three of their offensive lineman.

Chiefs vs. 49ers (+7)
The Chiefs still don't have Trent Green, and in the 1.5 games they've played without him they have managed to score 6 whole points. Larry Johnson should finally score his first touchdown; that noise you'll hear when he does will be the sound of a couple million fantasy footballers screaming, "It's about fucking time!!" I do, however, think the 49ers offense is good enough to keep this game somewhat close. This game would be my upset of the week, but I don't do that shit around here.

Panthers (-7) vs. Saints
The Saints impressed the hell out of me on Monday night by the way they just manhandled the Falcons. They may be a legitimate playoff team this season, really. Despite that, after all the emotion running through the Superdome and the Saints Monday, there has to be a letdown. They can't possibly be as psyched up for this game against the Panthers. Also, with Steve Smith's return, the Panthers are a much stronger team. The Panthers bring the Saints down a peg this week, but don't make the mistake of writing them off after it happens.

Falcons (-7.5) vs. Cardinals
So, the Falcons got trampled by the Saints on Monday night, but they're returning home this weekend against a team with quarterback problems. Kurt Warner can't seem to hold onto a football anymore, which tends to be a problem when you're the quarterback. Also, I don't think the Cardinals' defense can do anywhere near the job on Mike Vick that the Saints did. Vick and the Falcons run game returns to form this week.

Texans vs. Dolphins(-3.5)
Ok. I know it's Daunte Culpepper, and it's a road game. So what? Last week I took Mark Brunell on the road in Houston giving up points, and that worked out fine. The Texans are exactly what Daunte needs to buy him another week of time in Miami, and maybe get all those people calling for Joey Harrington (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH) off of his back.

Rams (-6) vs. Lions
The Rams are 2-1 but to be honest, I'm not really sure how. They aren't exactly playing well. The Lions, meanwhile, have done nothing but regress weekly since they held the Seahawks to 9 points in Week 1. I think this week Marc Bulger finally gets things going through the air thanks to Steven Jackson controlling the tempo against the Lions D.

BENGALS (-6.5) vs. Patriots
Is Tom Brady pissed off right now? Well, let's put ourselves in his shoes. Imagine taking a pay cut at your job to help the company keep some much-needed employees around, but then it goes ahead and lays them off anyway, replacing them with a bunch of punk ass kids straight out of college. Now you're getting paid less to do a lot more. So, do you think Tom Brady is pissed off? The Bengals, meanwhile, are turning into a monster. Not only can they score points at an alarming rate, they've also demonstrated they can stop other teams from scoring. Cincinnati made a pretty large statement defeating the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, and I think they make another one this weekend.

Redskins vs. Jaguars (-3)
Well, Mark Brunell, I hope you enjoyed your vacation in Houston last week, cuz now you're back in reality. The Jaguars are pretty pissed off right now cuz they played good enough to win in Indy last week and lost. Guess who that defense is going to want to take that out on? That's right, you. No, Mark, telling them that you used to be a Jaguar won't help, not even if you wear your old jersey during the game.

Raiders (+3) vs. Browns
This game almost made my head explode. In the end though, there is just no way I can take a team that is 0-3 giving up points on the road. No matter how much I want to. Not even if they're playing the Raiders. Just. Can't. Do. It. Dear God, I'm taking a team coached by Art Shell.

Bears (-3.5) vs. Seahawks
So I guess this is the game of the week. It will decide who the best team in the NFC is in Week 4. I guess that's equivalent to having MLB's best record in April. If the Seahawks had Shaun Alexander, I'd be picking them, but they don't. So I'm taking the Bears. As for who the best team in the NFC is, we'll find out in January.

EAGLES (-11) vs. Packers
Man, ESPN and Monday Night Football got Rumphed with this TV deal. They paid a ton of money, yet NBC gets the flexible schedule at the end of the season, while ESPN is stuck with this game. No doubt Joe Theismann will take over John Madden's role of slobbering all over Brett Favre, but as far as watching the game goes, I don't think this one will be too close.