Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Inside the Numbers-Top Pitching Duos

Sports Illustrated just put out a list of the Top Ten Pitching Combo's in the Major Leagues. After reading it, I wondered if the guys at SI actually watch baseball or if they just picked names out of a hat.

How do you have a Top 10 list of pitchers and not include a single member of the White Sox staff? It's widely accepted around baseball that the White Sox have the best starting rotation in the league but we're supposed to believe they don't have the top tandem?

Let's look at SI's list:

  1. Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett-Boston
  2. Barry Zito and Rich Harden-Oakland
  3. Andy Pettite and Roy Oswalt-Houston
  4. Tim Hudson and John Smoltz-Atlanta
  5. Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine-New York Mets
  6. John Lackey and Bartolo Colon-Anaheim
  7. Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter-St. Louis
  8. Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina-New York Yankees
  9. Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior-Chicago Cubs
  10. Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett-Toronto

Not that bad, but let's take a closer look inside the numbers:

  • #10. Halladay and Burnett-(Combined numbers for 2006 2-2, 30IP, 4.50ERA) Roy Halladay belongs on this list, no question. The only reason Burnett is on it is cuz of his salary. In 2 starts this season Burnett has been knocked around, giving up 7 runs in 10 innings. Then in his 3rd start he had to leave early due to elbow pain. Gee, Burnett has a sore elbow. What's new?
  • #9 Zambrano and Prior-(0-1, 29.2IP, 3.94ERA) Those numbers are combined, but of course they're only Zambrano's. Prior, though, leads the Majors in simulated innings pitched. Zambrano is the Cubs ace, yet he hasn't gotten a victory yet and has been hit around pretty well at times. The inclusion of these 2 on this list is the biggest joke of all. You're telling me that there is no combination of Sox pitchers better than these two? I think any combo of Sox pitchers beats these two. Maybe not on potential, but potential doesn't win games.
  • #8 Unit and Mussina-(6-3, 64.1IP, 3.08ERA) I can't argue with these two being on the list. Both for what they've done in their careers, and for what they're doing this year.
  • #7 Mulder and Carpenter-(5-1, 61IP, 2.80ERA) Carpenter is a Cy Young winner, and Mulder has been a stud his entire career. These two should be on this list, and probably deserve to be a little higher.
  • #6 Lackey and Colon-(2-3, 38IP, 5.21ERA) This is a big mistake too. I don't really think that this tandem belongs on this list, let alone above the last two duos. Lackey has never been anything more than a #3 guy, while Colon looks brilliant at times and god awful at others.
  • #5 Pedro and Glavine (6-2, 59IP, 2.90ERA) Like I can argue against these two. Both are off to good starts, but at their advanced age I don't think they'll be able to do it all season. Either way, there's almost 500 wins between em.
  • #4 Hudson and Smoltz (2-3, 56.2IP, 5.08ERA) This is obviously based more on reputation than performance this season. The Braves pitching staff is struggling right now. I don't expect these two to continue at this rate, but right now they shouldn't be this high.
  • #3 Pettite and Oswalt (5-3, 67.1IP, 3.34ERA) Right now it's all Oswalt.(4-0, 36.1, 2.48) Considering the Little League field these two spend most of their time pitching in though, and their numbers get even more impressive.
  • #2 Zito and Harden (4-2, 55IP, 4.75ERA) No argument with these two being so high. Zito had some early struggles, and right now Harden is the better of the two. That 4.75ERA is troublesome though, especially with a team that struggles to score like Oakland.
  • #1 Schilling and Beckett (7-0, 63IP, 2.57ERA) Completely deserving of being ranked #1. However I still think it's just a matter of time before Beckett gets a blister and goes on the DL. It happens to him constantly, and I have no reason to believe it won't again. Schilling has just reinvented himself, and is still as dominant as he was before.

Now the White Sox staff is harder to break up in tandems, as it's harder to define the clear #1 in their rotation. For the sake of this exercise though we'll just go with Mark Buerhle and Jose Contreras.

  • Buerhle and Contreras (6-0, 57IP, 1.73ERA) Okay, so the only tandem with a better record is Schilling and Beckett at 7-0. Of course, they have one more start as Buerhle prepares to face the Mariners tonight. They have only pitched 57 innings, but one has to consider their team is up 7-0 a lot when these two pitch, so Ozzie Guillen takes them out after 7 innings to give the bullpen work. Again, the closest in ERA is Beckett and Schilling, but they trail by .85 runs a game.

That's just Buerhle and Contreras combined. You can take either of the two and match them with any other Sox starter and that tandem would probably have better numbers than most these duos.

Maybe the guys at Sports Illustrated just thought it would be unfair to include the White Sox staff on this list. That's the only reason possible. Looking at the numbers and there's no way that these two could be listed lower than #2.

And if the numbers aren't enough, you can look at the fact that these 2 consistently pitch over 200 innings a season, and never spend time on the DL. Or the fact that not only do they give up few runs, they hardly give up hits, period. In fact their combined WHIP (Walks+Hits per Innings Pitched) is .877.

So in summary, the Buerhle/Contreras combo doesn't give up hits, runs, walks, and they don't lose. But they aren't good enough to be in the Top 10 of Major League Baseball.

Maybe that's cuz they're in a league of their own.

1 comments:

Kent Hrbek said...

i rank b/c higher caus ein toughest division even with suck royals and nonhitting twins

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