National League Preview 2006

Well it's pretty well understood that the National League has been the weaker of the two major leagues lately. The last two years they have compiled an 0-8 record in the World Series. (Cardinals swept by Red Sox, Astros swept by White Sox)

This year doesn't appear to be any different. Ask most baseball experts and talking heads and they will all be happy to inform you that the best teams generally reside in the American League. The defending champion White Sox, the Athletics, the Angels, the Indians, and of course the Yankees and Red Sox. (Though I'm not so sure about the Red Sox this season.)

In fact I read on Buster Olney's blog that one ML scout says that if in the National League, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would compete for the wild card. On the surface that seems insulting, and in fact it's probably intended to be, but I see an oppurtunity.

In the AL it's generally known who's going to be the contenders and pretenders, but the NL is the exact opposite. Yes we still have our favorites, but absolutely nothing is set in stone. Anybody can step up this season and take the reins.

Who's that team going to be? I don't know. These things are too hard to predict, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to try. I have some ideas about how I think things should shape up, so without further ado, here they are.

NL EAST

1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

The trendy pick with this division seems to be the New York Mets, and it's easily understandable. With off season pickups of players like Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, Billy Wagner along with the further development of David Wright and Carlos Beltran getting that first year of New York under his belt it's a reasonable assumption. My question with it is the Mets pitching staff. Pedro Martinez's health is of vital importance. We still don't really know the problems his toe problem will cause him. Behind Martinez is Tom Glavine, but well, he just celebrated his 40th birthday last week. Behind them is Victor Zambrano, Steve Trachsel, and Brian Bannister. Billy Wagner and Jorge Julio should help anchor a solid bull pen, but getting a lead to the pen could be difficult.

So I'm going to have to go with the Atlanta Braves. The last time they didn't win the division Bill Clinton was halfway through his first term. They may have lost pitching coach Leo Mazzone to the Orioles, but they still have Bobby Cox. Cox is the best regular season manager in my lifetime. They also still have players like John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Marcus Giles, newcomer Edgar Renteria, and good looking youngsters with Adam LaRoche, and Jeff Francouer. That formula should seem familiar. Every season Bobby Cox mixes a core group of solid veterans, and promising youngsters, and gets the absolute maximum out of each of them. The weakness on this team will probably be the bullpen. A key to their success will be how Chris Reitsma handles the closer role, and whether or not somebody steps up behind Smoltz and Hudson as a solid #3 option. Horacio Ramirez is the most viable canidate to take that spot.

The Phillies and Nationals will both be in the hunt most of the season for the division too. Remember that in 2005 every NL East team finished at least .500 or better. When looking at the Phillies roster two things become apparent. They will score a lot of runs, and they will give up a lot of runs. Ryan Howard though could develop into one of baseballs best players though, and should be a delight to watch no matter how the Phillies do. Another of my personal favorites, Aaron Rowand (acquired from the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade), will also flash some brilliant glove work and defense in center field. Also playing in Citizens Bank Ballpark for 81 games should help Rowands offensive numbers after he slumped at the plate last season. Of course as with most teams the Phillies main concern is pitching. Their starting rotation is filled with #3 starters at best on most teams, and anytime you start the season with Tom Gordon as your closer, and no real plan B you are setting yourself up for trouble.

The Nationals should struggle this year compared to last season. I don't think they will finish .500 again, but I don't think they're going to be completely out of it either. Their pitching is weak, but with Alfonso Soriano, Jose Guillen, Nick Johnson, and Jose Vidro they should score some runs. Of course playing in that cavernous RFK stadium should help a weak pitching staff, but no where near enough to keep the Nationals on top of the standings all season.

The Marlins are in the middle of a complete rehaul of the roster, much like what happened after they won the 1997 World Series. Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera will provide some entertainment for baseball fans in Miami (if there are any) while a parade of minor leaguers play the rest of the field. Joe Girardi has a hard road in front of him as a first time manager, but luckily their are no real expectations for success. The Marlins are the one team in this division, and one of the few in the NL, that really have no chance to compete. They are still on pace to win another World Series in 2009, whether or not they'll still be the Florida Marlins then we don't know.

NL CENTRAL

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds

To me this division is going to be the most competitive in the NL this year. The Cardinals are still the "class" of the division, but they didn't really make any huge waves this offseason other than the finishing touches on their new stadium. The pitching staff will miss Matt Morris and the innings he ate up, but they still have Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, and now Sidney Ponson. How Ponson recovers from his off field problems will be a large part of the Cardinals success. They don't need him to be a stud, but just consistent. The bullpen has lost some of it's old reliables, and you can never trust closer Jason Isringhausen to stay healthy for a full season, so Ponson will have to carry the burden of pitching the innings Matt Morris took to San Francisco. On the offensive side of the ball there is still Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds. Scott Rolen's health will also be a huge factor. If he stays healthy the Cardinals will not struggle for runs, if he doesn't they could. Losing Mark Grudzielanek could loom large, so Junior Spivey will have to get on base.

The Milwaukee Brewers are just a team that I happen to really like this season. They have a lot of promising young talent in JJ Hardy, Rickie Weeks, and Prince Fielder. (Cecil Fielder's son) They have a proven bopper in Carlos Lee, and a steady bat in Geoff Jenkins. They also have one of the deeper rotations in the NL. If Ben Sheets stays healthy he could have a career year, while Doug Davis hopefully picks up where he left off last season. Chris Capuano, Toma Ohka, David Bush, and Rick Helling round out the rotation. None of them are Cy Young candidates, but all are capable of 15-10 wins. I'm also a big fan of Ned Yost as a manager. If things fall into place the Brewers could easily take this entire division.

The Astros stepped up at the right time last season and won the NL pennant. Well I just don't think they can get back this season. Of course anytime you have a rotation that includes Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettite, and possibly Roger Clemens after May 1st, anything is possible. I don't think Brad Lidge will have any trouble coming back from a notorious postseason. The Astros always seem to be one of those teams that just don't impress you early, but once summer comes along they get hot. Losing Jeff Bagwell won't be as big a deal as a lot of people think, cuz in all reality he wasn't much of a contributor last season and they still won the pennant. A full season for Lance Berkman would help the Astro cause tremendously. Morgan Ensberg seemed to fade late last season, but Jason Lane and Willy Tavares showed signs of promise last season and their development will also be key. Craig Biggio and Adam Everett (the best defensive SS in baseball) anchor the infield, while new acquisition Preston Wilson could pay large dividends. Especially with that short left field porch. The Astros are one of those teams that you really just can't put a finger on until summer. They could win the division, or they could finish 5th. I took the average, and put them in third.

The Chicago Cubs improved on offense this offseason with Juan Pierre. Now Derrek Lee may have runners on base while he's smoking balls all over Wrigley Field this summer. I don't think the Cubs will have problems scoring runs this year, but as always, the starters will determine how much success this team has. You have Carlos Zambrano (my preseason pick to win the NL Cy Young) followed by the question marks that are Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, an aging Greg Maddux and Glendon Rusch, Jerome Williams, and Rich Hill. Wood and Prior haven't shown any signs of dependability this spring, and realistically they cannot be counted on. Luckily for the Cubs they improved the bullpen with Scott Eyre, and Bobby Howry, but with a suspect starting staff Dusty Baker will have to be careful not to over use the pen. Also as a distraction for the team will be the contract status of manager Dusty Baker, general manager Jim Hendry, and an extension for Derrek Lee. The Cubs will have to get off to a good start to have any real chance to compete.

Pittsburgh is one of those teams that I think could surprise a lot of people. With an outstanding young outfielder in Jason Bay, steady infield presence of Jack Wilson, and hopefully the continued maturation of pitchers Oliver Perez and Zack Duke the Pirates can turn some heads. I don't know if they have enough horsepower to really compete this year, but with Jim Tracy there and another season of experience the Pirates could be primed for a post season push in 2007.

The Reds just don't have the pitching to compete. Yes with Adam Dunn, and Ken Griffey Jr they will still score, but realistically that's all they will do. Any time you go into a season with Aaron Harang as your #1 starter, you know you're in some trouble.

NL WEST

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

The NL West was the worst division in baseball last season. The defending champion Padres didn't even finish .500. I don't think we should expect a repeat performance in the division this year though. The Dodgers should win this division rather easily. They have the best starting staff, and a worthy offense. Anytime you can add Rafeal Furcal to your team you have improved both defensively and offensively. Whether or not JD Drew, and Nomar Garciaparra can stay healthy is a big question, but even if they don't I think the Dodgers should take this division. With a starting rotation of Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Odalis Perez, Brett Tomko, and Jae Seo they don't have anybody who scares you, but 5 guys who will keep you in games. The biggest question is whether Eric Gagne will return to his dominant form after an injury filled season in 2005.

The Padres won this division last year, well, they finished first anyway. I don't know that anybody actually won it. They have one of the better young startes in baseball with Jake Peavy, but after that they don't have anything spectacular. In fact if I were to tell you I really knew why the Padres would finish second, I'd be lying. The only team in the division I see finishing over .500 is the Dodgers. The rest of these teams will be fighting for nothing really.

The Giants entire season hinges upon Barry Bonds. I think all the steroids stuff will be just too large a distraction from Bonds, and though he may catch Ruth this season, I don't expect much else out of him. I'm in the process of reading Game of Shadows right now and really it's all going to depend on what happens to Bonds' body now after the steroids. Has he found something new that's undetectable? Or is his body about to collapse? Unfortunately for the Giants these are the two biggest questions they need to answer to gauge how they should do this season.

Arizona and Colorado will be fighting it out for last, but realistically they could have competition from any of the teams in this division for it. I like to think that in the NL West the team with the best chance to win the division is the one that does the worst job fighting for last. I have Arizona over Colorado for no other reason than I just like their starters better. Brandon Webb is solid, and Orlando Hernandez knows a lot about pitching. Just ask the rotation of the Chicago White Sox about what the man can teach you.

So now that we are done with that I'll get to the postseason.

Division Winners

1. Atlanta Braves
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Wild Card

1. Milwaukee Brewers

NLCS-Cardinals over Brewers

MVP-Albert Pujols

Cy Young-Carlos Zambrano

RANDOM THOUGHTS

• I watched the Bulls season just about officially die last night. Up nine going into the 4th quarter at home against Orlando the Bulls proceeded to shoot 1-17 from the field and blew the game, and possibly post season chances. It's incredibly frustrating, but at the same time expected. While at work last night Vic asked me if I'd take the Bulls -5.5 and I told him I would never put any money on the Chicago Bulls if Michael Jordan wasn't suiting up. Bet he's wishing he listened.
• Anybody who isn't rooting for George Mason this weekend better be an alumni of the other 3 schools.
• Well spring is here, and baseball kicks off Sunday night at US Cellular Field. For Cub fans it's still business as usual. I hope this is the year that most Cub fans finally realize the only two last names of any consequence are actually Zambrano and Lee, not Prior and Wood.
• MLB will suspend Julian Tavarez in all likelihood. For those who don't know, yesterday in a spring training game Tavarez was covering a play at the plate as Tampa Bay Devil Ray Joey Gathright slid into home plate. Well while stepping on Gathrights arm, Tavarez sucker punched him while Gathright was getting to his knees for absolutely no reason. Of course both benches cleared, and a brawl ensued. Isn't it funny how manly a relief pitcer from the NL can get after he goes to the AL and realizes he'll never have to bat again? What a gutless punk.
• Speaking of gutless punks, it's time to talk NASCAR! Anybody see Jeff Gordon shove Matt Kenseth after the Food City 500 in Bristol last weekend? Did anybody else love the fact that Gordon would not take off his helmet before shoving Kenseth? It couldn't have been cuz he was afraid that Kenseth might retaliate could it?