NFL Divisional Round

Ok so the Divisional round is upon us. This round is quite intriguing. All 4 games are rematches from the regular season. In those 4 games the home teams (Washington, Denver, Indy, and Chicago) all won. I think that this week should be the same, with one exception. Let’s look at last week first though. Picking games straight up I went 3-1 (W-Wash, NE, Pitt L-NYG), and 3-1 against the spread. So my undefeated postseason dream is over, but I’ll take a 3-1 again this week. So anyway, onto my prognosticating brilliance.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)

Well the Redskins only mustered 120 yard on offense last week, and still somehow managed to win in Tampa. Of course when your Defense gets 2 huge turnovers in the first 5 minutes (INT resulting in a 1st and goal, Fumble rec for a TD) leading to a quick 14-0 lead, it never hurts your chances. If the Redskins are going to beat the Seahawks, they are probably gonna need more than 120 yards. I’d say at least 135.

When these two teams met early in the season the Redskins prevailed 20-17 in DC. This week’s game is 100% different though. Both teams are not the same teams they were in that first meeting. This time though the Seahawks are at home, and the Skins just aren’t a good road team. (Even though they won last week, if you saw the game you know what I mean)

Newly named MVP Shaun Alexander will be the toughest test this revitalized Redskin defense has faced. Not to mention the fact he is rested. Matt Hasselbeck is not exactly a pushover either at QB. Also now that Darrell Jackson is healthy, the WR corps in Seattle is a very solid unit. These Seahawks didn’t get finish as the #1 Offense in the NFC cuz they can’t move the ball. Of course the must unknown, and underappreciated unit on this offense is its line. The left side of the line with T Walter Jones, and G Steve Hutchinson are phenomenal. They are absolute death to RE’s. When watching the game pay attention to how many of the Seattle’s run plays go left compared to right. Stats show that Alexander averages more yards a carry to the right, but the reason for that is that defenses overload on the left side of the Seahawks line to account for Jones and Hutchinson. This frees up space on the right side for Alexander to break long runs over there occasionally. It’s a pick your poison for opposing defenses. Either play balanced and have the left side eat you up, or overload the left and leave the right exposed. This is a VERY GOOD offense, and I can’t stress that enough.

On the flip side the Seattle defense isn’t great number wise, but they have a ton of sacks, and cause turnovers. Both of those are magnified in the postseason. The Redskins are coming off of a god awful offensive performance in Tampa, but lucky for them they won’t be facing the Tampa defense this week. Look for Portis to get 100 yards, and maybe a TD, but I expect the Seahawks defense will be able to keep Santana Moss in check. In other words, the Redskin offense will be a lot better this week, but it won’t be good enough to keep up.

Seahawks 27 Redskins 21


New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-3)

The Patriots started off slowly on Saturday night, but got things going in the second half to make an easy time of it against Jacksonville. They shut down the Jaguar running game, and forced them to throw stopping that too. The Jags are a good team, but they were just out of their element in Foxboro.

In the same matchup between these two teams during the regular season the Broncos won at home 28-20. I really don’t think this week will be the same. I’m officially on the Patriots bandwagon right now. Though it’s for selfish reasons I’ll get to later. I could try to get real in depth with my reasoning for this game, but I don’t think it’s necessary. I only have to say the following sentence.

It’s a playoff game with Jake Plummer going against Tom Brady.

See what I’m getting at here? Jake Plummer is going to come back in this game. The Patriots defense(Even without Bruschi, who won’t be playing, pay no attention to the NE injury report) will shut down the Bronco running game. That front 7 has been phenomenal the last few weeks. That’s going to force the Broncos to leave the game in Plummer’s hands. That sentence right there should send shivers down any Bronco fan’s spine. It did mine, and I don’t care about the Broncos.

Yes it’s in Denver, I don’t care. It’s my "upset" pick of the week.

New England 20 Denver 14


Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts(-9.5)

Yesterday Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger said it best "We have to play our A+ game to beat their B- game." He said it jokingly, and as a motivational tactic for his team, but he was right. Some people are saying that the Colts are gonna be rusty, and out of practice. Well Indy hardly played its stars in the preseason, and then they only won their first 13 games.

In the regular season matchup, also in Indy, the Colts outright destroyed the Steelers 26-7. If this game were being played in Pittsburgh I’d give the Steelers a fighting chance, but not in the RCA Dome.

I don’t think Pittsburghs secondary can keep up with the Colt WR’s on that turf. Harrison and Wayne will run by them, and Clark, Stokley, and all the rest will take care of the underneath stuff. Then throw in the fact Polamalu will have to play close to the line of scrimmage to help stop Edgerrin James, and I see some post routes opening up. The Steelers front 7 can stop the majority of the teams in the leagues run game, but not the Colts. It’s not that Edgerrin James is the greatest RB ever, its his help. He has Peyton Manning taking away attention, the WR’s keeping the Safety from cheating too much, and the best offensive line in the league. (Other teams may have more "talent" on the line, but none have been as good for as long as the Colts line) Put all those together and the Steelers front seven will need help from Polamalu that the Steeler secondary can’t really afford to give.

That means the Steelers are going to have to outscore the Colts. The Steelers have had some high scoring games this year, but how many teams can keep up point wise with the Colts? I’d say 3, the Pats, Seahawks, and Bengals. Of course that’s without considering doing it against the much improved Colts defense.

The Steelers keep it a lot closer than last time, but not close enough.

Indianapolis 31 Pittsburgh 23


Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3)

Ok, so Im probably just a bit biased in this one. It’s just I’ve seen this entire story before during the regular season. The Panthers were rolling on all cylinders before coming into Chicago. They had scored over 30 points in their previous two games, and they were going to destroy the Bears. Then the game started, and the Bears won 13-3.

That 13-3 is very misleading though. The Bears got one offensive TD from former Panther Muhsin Muhammad, and should have had 2 but Muhammad dropped a touchdown in the end zone. (Round here we refer to these instances as Moose Droppings. Did he always drop this many passes? Course he’s still better than any reciever we’ve had here since Eddie Kennison, and Tom Waddle. Yes...that Eddie Kennison. He was a bad ass here.) Also the Bears D smothered the Panthers. They sacked Delhomme 8 times, and only gave up 60 yards rushing. Meanwhile the vaunted Panther D line was held sackless, barely pressuring then Bears QB Kyle Orton.

Steve Smith did go off on the Bears for 170 yards, but the Bears kept him out of the end zone. If they can keep him in check again, the Bears should win. Another key will be stopping DeShaun Foster. Towards the end of the season the Bears defense was missing a lot of tackles, something the unit rarely did during the season. I suspect this was just a sign of an undersized defense wearing down. I think the rest in Week 17 and the Bye should leave this defense as refreshed as it has been all season.

Also in the Bears favor this time is Rex Grossman. Yes it’s his first ever postseason start (Hell it’s only his 8th CAREER start), and all 4 Playoff virgin QB’s lost last week. The difference here is that the Bears don’t NEED a strong output from their QB. They run the ball, and they stop you from scoring. Grossman’s presence though keeps opposing defenses honest, and let’s Thomas Jones run against something other than 8 man fronts. So in reality, the only thing different from this matchup compared to the last one is the Bears have a better offense this time.

If they won last time without one, I would have to assume they win this time with one.

Chicago Bears 17 Carolina Panthers 10

Random Thoughts

• I'm praying for a Patriots-Bears Super Bowl. It will be called Super Bowl XX Squared. This Time....it's Personal. Now if it does happen, I will have to find a way to get rid of Tom Brady, and find Steve Grogan or Tony Eason.
• There's a lot of fuss being made over Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, and Vince Young in the NFL next season, and where they'll be drafted. Am I the only one who thinks LenDale White will have a better pro career than any of them? (I just hope it's not with the Packers.)
• Don't believe Miguel Tejada saying he doesn't want to be traded anymore. It's just a ploy to strengthen the Orioles stance. It's hard getting equal value for a guy when the team you're negotiating with knows he wants out.
• Funny headline I saw on ESPN.com yesterday, Kobe HELD to 41. The most damning part of that game was the Lakers still lost despite Kobe's performance. I would like to know what the Bulls record was when MJ scored at least 40. If you can't win when you're superstar is scoring 40 points, you can officially say "We suck." How long til Lamar Odom attacks Kobe?
• The Winter Olympics start in a few weeks!!! Yep. I don't care either. Well except for the luge, Luge is badass.
• Pitchers and Catchers report in about 5 weeks. I'd say I can feel the warm sun on the horizon, but it's already 50 degrees in Chicago.
• Congrats to Bruce Sutter on his pending HOF induction. Now if only sportswriters would put in Dawson, Rice, and Gossage.
• The Detroit Pistons are still a great basketball team.
• The Big Ten is the best college basketball conference in the country, though Big East fans will argue.