Tommy the Dago Presents: NFL Week Three

Well, after my 11-5 performance in week one, last week's 8-8 result brought me back down to Earth. But to be fair, week 2 point spreads are always a little bit ridiculous.

Denver, 10.5 point favorites against Kansas City? Did no one see Plummer and Co. suck it up in their opener against St. Louis?

Thankfully, things seem to be getting back to normal in week 3, and hopefully I can get back over the break-even point.

Bills vs. Jets (+6)
I have a hard time giving up 6 points with a team quarterbacked by JP Losman. Besides, the Jets showed me something last week. They were down 24-0 against the Patriots but instead of throwing in the towel like a bad team would do, they fought back. Unfortunately for them (and me), they came up seven points short, losing 24-17. If I'm a Jets fan, I'm not so suicidal about my team's prospects anymore. They aren't going to win the division but they aren't going to go 3-13 either.

Steelers (-1) vs. Bengals
In just two weeks the AFC North has become the best division in the NFL. I know the Steelers' offense looked terrible Monday night but, to be fair, a lot of offenses don't look very good against the Jaguars. Especially when they have a quarterback who hasn't played at all this season and is coming off a surgery that normally takes four weeks to recover from. The Bengals got a little beat up in their win over the Browns on Sunday - just ask Chad Johnson - and it may be their year to win the division but.....HUGH!!!

Colts vs. Jaguars (+7)
Okay, so the Jaguars were 0-2 against the Colts last season, accounting for half their regular season losses. But in the first game, week 2 at Indy, they held the Colts scoreless in the first half before finally losing 10-3. Later in the season at Jacksonville, they lost 26-18. My point is, the Jaguars can hang with the Colts, even at the RCA Dome. So when you're giving one of the best teams in the NFL seven points, I have to take them. I know Peyton had 400 yards passing and 3 touchdowns last week, but that was against the Texans. I think the Colts win, but only by a score of 20-14.

Dolphins (-11) vs. Titans
Ugh, I would rather not pick this game at all. I'm not comfortable giving up 11 points with a Miami team that appears to have been a bit over-hyped this offseason. Of course, I'm less comfortable taking the Titans, who have one quarterback who's been on the team for three weeks and a rookie still learning the game backing him up. I think (hope) Saban is smart enough to just let Ronnie Brown do it all for the Dolphins this week, and not just because I have him on one of my fantasy teams.

Texans vs. Redskins (-4)
Are you an old and washed up quarterback who's lost your way? Well, I have good news for you! With a game against the Houston Texans and their "secondary," even you can resemble a competent NFL quarterback!!! Seriously, if Mark Brunell can't get on track this week against the Texans, maybe it is time to see what Jason Campbell can do for you. I think the Skins will be fine though, since Clinton Portis should be back and Sean Taylor is still killing people on a regular basis. Oh, and when I say fine, I mean this week, not this season.


Vikings vs. Bears (-4)
Rex Grossman is the NFL's highest-rated quarterback. Don't laugh, I'm being serious. The Bears' defense is as good as ever, and now they've found an offense. The Vikings have always given the Bears a tough time at the Metrodome (now that I think about it, all Chicago teams have a tough time in the Metrodome). But the Bears complete the sweep of the NFC North in the season's first three weeks, and do it rather convincingly.

PANTHERS (-3) vs. Buccaneers
Steve Smith practiced on Thursday and should be playing Sunday for the Panthers. His return can't come a minute too soon - Carolina has struggled without him on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have scored a grand total of 3 points this season and their defense has been pretty porous as well. If Chris Simms has another game like the first two, Jon Gruden may be imitating more than Chuckie's facial expressions on the sidelines. And no Chris, not that scene from Bride of Chucky I know you hope I'm referring to.

Lions (-7) vs. Packers
This is another game I don't really want to pick. The only thing I'm relying on here is the fact that the Lions play a lot better at Ford Field than outside of it. I'm also relying on the fact that the Packers suck.

Browns vs. RAVENS (-7)
I know a lot of people are talking about how the Ravens are back to their old form but I'm not fully convinced yet. Yes, they shut out Tampa Bay in week 1, but the Bucs showed in week 2 that they just aren't that good. In week 2 the Ravens beat up on Oakland - but they're the worst team in the NFL. Of course, this week they're playing the Browns who suck just like Tampa Bay and Oakland, so they'll do it again. I don't think we'll find out how good the Ravens really are until they play San Diego next week.

Cardinals (-4.5) vs Rams
I'm guessing this game will be one of the higher scoring affairs of week 3. Neither team seems capable of playing defense, but the Cardinals are a little more adept at offense. So far in 2 games the Rams have only been able to score a single touchdown which, according to their recent history, is very un-Rams like. If Alex Smith could pick apart St. Louis' secondary, I'm pretty sure Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald shouldn't have too hard of a time hooking up either.

Seahawks vs. Giants (+3.5)
The Giants pulled off a great comeback last week against the Eagles and, while I don't know if they can beat Seattle, they're a good enough team to keep it close. The Seahawks' offense has yet to get going on the season, and I don't expect Shaun Alexander to have a huge day this week, though I do think he'll get over the 100 yard mark finally. My two big questions for this game: Can Deion Branch make a difference for Seattle? And how prematurely will Jeremy Shockey celebrate a Giants victory this time?

49ers vs. Eagles (-6.5)
Last weeks loss to the Giants had to be pretty embarrassing for the Eagles, giving up such a large lead so late. I'm guessing they learned a lesson about losing your aggressiveness and sitting on a lead. The Niners have looked pretty impressive this season, but they haven't played a team with an actual defense yet. I will say I'm not as comfortable with this pick as I'd like to be, though.

Patriots (-7) vs. Broncos
There's probably some revenge on the mind of the Patriots in this game, which I'm sure NBC will cram down our throats since the Broncos beat the Patriots in the playoffs last season. That game was the last one in which Jake Plummer had the soul of some other quarterback possessing his body. The Pats haven't been as tough this season but the Broncos have looked pretty pathetic on offense all season. I think the Patriots have a pretty easy time here.

Saints vs. FALCONS (-4)
Well the whole first game back in New Orleans is going to be a nice story for Monday Night football this weekend. It's good to see that at least the Superdome is fixed up while the rest of New Orleans is still pretty trashed. The fact that the Saints are 2-0 is a nice story too, but that's going to end on Monday night. The Saints have beaten the Browns and Packers. They'll now be running into a team that averages 290 yards rushing a game.